Rookie forecaster Duke kc2dux won the 7^th Annual NE.Wx/s Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest.  The season was notable for its heavy snowfall over northern portions of the forecast area where 1/3 of the stations exceeded their ‘period of record’ normal (PORN) snowfall.  Snowfall at Concord, NH (CON) and Caribou, ME (CAR) between DEC 1 and MAR 31 was almost twice PORN.

 

Perfect forecasts:

BOS - Toms92GP* and pablopicasso*

ORH - NNEWX70*

NYC - Steve Okonski

ACY - shanabe

 

Complete station-by-station forecast verification table @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_9/Season_Totals_0708.html

 

Thanks to everyone who entered.  Hope to see all of you again next winter.

 

Total Absolute Error is the primary measure of forecaster skill.  The absolute error for each forecast station is summed.  The Forecaster with the smallest sum-total error made the best forecast.

 

Error Z is the forecast error/s distance from the average error (479.9”) of all forecasts…expressed as the number of standard deviations above (+) or below (-) the mean.

 

%MPRV over PORN measures the forecast’s ‘percent improvement over the ‘period of record normal’.  Forecasts with positive percentages were more skillful than PORN.

 

AVG Error is the average station error (Total Absolute Error divided by the number of forecast stations (25)).

 

Season-total Snowfall is the sum-total snowfall forecast (STP) for all stations.
% PORN is the forecast/s STP expressed as a percentage of the ‘period of record’ normal snowfall.

Total Error is the absolute difference between Observed and Forecast snowfall.

AVG Error is the average station error (STP divided by the number of forecast stations (25)).

 

Blue (red) cells indicate values in the upper (lower) 33% percentile.

Total Absolute * = rookie  Rank Error  Error Z  %MPRV over PORN AVG Error Forecaster             1      314.2 -1.456 32.2%      12.6 Duke kc2dux*             2      331.6 -1.304 28.4%      13.3 shanabe             3      341.4 -1.217 26.3%      13.7 Don Sutherland             4      361.9 -1.037 21.9%      14.5 The Snowman             5      366.3 -0.999 20.9%      14.7 NNEWX70*             6      368.2 -0.982 20.5%      14.7 Jack Ziegler             7      378.4 -0.892 18.3%      15.1 dmcguriman             8      386.4 -0.822 16.6%      15.5 Raven             9      392.2 -0.771 15.3%      15.7 TQ           10      406.2 -0.648 12.3%      16.2 Herb@MAWS           11      408.3 -0.629 11.8%      16.3 ilibov           12      424.8 -0.484 8.3%      17.0 Steven DiMartino*           13      434.2 -0.402 6.2%      17.4 Toms92GP*           14      434.6 -0.399 6.2%      17.4 CONSENSUS           15      447.3 -0.287 3.4%      17.9 CoasterBGW           16      463.1 -0.148 0.0%      18.5 PORN           17      466.2 -0.121 -0.7%      18.6 Mitch Volk           18      466.2 -0.121 -0.7%      18.6 Zak Brisko*           19      466.8 -0.115 -0.8%      18.7 DON ROONEY           20      467.8 -0.107 -1.0%      18.7 Bradley Lear*           21      473.8 -0.054 -2.3%      19.0 mike murphy*           22      476.2 -0.033 -2.8%      19.0 rosenfeld           23      487.2 0.064 -5.2%      19.5 FrankVito*           24      487.4 0.066 -5.2%      19.5 GSB Snowman*           25      489.8 0.087 -5.8%      19.6 WXCASTER1           26      494.9 0.132 -6.9%      19.8 Steve Okonski           27      509.6 0.261 -10.0%      20.4 wxfixer*           28      532.7 0.464 -15.0%      21.3 pablopicasso*           29      532.8 0.465 -15.1%      21.3 smadsen8486           30      540.2 0.530 -16.6%      21.6 Jeff Rudacille           31      582.8 0.904 -25.8%      23.3 GINX           32      622.8 1.256 -34.5%      24.9 scubadiver44*           33      664.3 1.620 -43.4%      26.6 RobBensalemSnow*           34      733.8 2.231 -58.5%      29.4 Chaz*           35      759.3 2.455 -64.0%      30.4 attml*           36      763.8 2.495 -64.9%      30.6 answered7*  Rank Error  Z  %MPRV   FCST Statistics 1 314.2 -1.456 -64.9% 13 MIN 36 763.8 2.495 32.2% 31 MAX 19 479.9 0.000 -3.6% 19 AVG 19 466.5 -0.118 -0.7% 19 Median              Mode 11 113.8        1.000 24.6% 4.552 STD 13      431.1 -0.429 -5.4%      17.2 33% 24      488.2 0.073 6.9%      19.5 67%

* = rookie Season Total Snowfall Forecaster 1038.8 % PORN Total Error Average Error Rank Steven DiMartino* 1036 112.2% 2.8 0.1 1 GSB Snowman* 1044 113.0% 4.8 0.2 2 dmcguriman 1062 115.0% 22.8 0.9 3 mike murphy* 1072 116.1% 33.0 1.4 4 NNEWX70* 1001 108.4% 38.3 1.6 5 pablopicasso* 1001 108.4% 38.3 1.6 5 CONSENSUS 997 108.0% 41.5 1.7 7 FrankVito* 989 107.1% 49.8 2.1 8 Herb@MAWS 968 104.8% 70.8 3.0 9 shanabe 968 104.8% 70.8 3.0 9 Toms92GP* 1113 120.5% 74.2 3.1 11 Jack Ziegler 1130 122.4% 91.2 3.8 12 Duke kc2dux* 1132 122.6% 93.2 3.9 13 smadsen8486 1136 123.0% 97.2 4.1 14 ilibov 938 101.6% 100.5 4.2 15 PORN 923 100.0% 115.5 4.8 16 Jeff Rudacille 907 98.2% 131.8 5.5 17 Raven 887 96.1% 151.8 6.3 18 wxfixer* 875 94.8% 163.8 6.8 19 Bradley Lear* 864 93.6% 174.8 7.3 20 TQ 851 92.2% 187.8 7.8 21 Mitch Volk 847 91.7% 191.8 8.0 22 Zak Brisko* 1257 136.1% 218.2 9.1 23 CoasterBGW 805 87.2% 234.1 9.8 24 Don Sutherland 800 86.7% 238.7 9.9 25 DON ROONEY 1280 138.6% 241.2 10.1 26 Chaz* 1289 139.6% 250.2 10.4 27 GINX 1290 139.7% 251.2 10.5 28 The Snowman 739 80.0% 300.3 12.5 29 WXCASTER1 1351 146.3% 312.2 13.0 30 attml* 1357 146.9% 317.7 13.2 31 rosenfeld 661 71.6% 377.8 15.7 32 scubadiver44* 634 68.7% 404.8 16.9 33 Steve Okonski 618 66.9% 420.8 17.5 34 RobBensalemSnow* 585 63.3% 454.3 18.9 35 answered7* 1503 162.8% 464.2 19.3 36 FCST Statistics TOT %Climo Error AAE Rank MIN 585 63.3%          2.8             0.1        1.0 MAX 1503 162.8%      464.2           19.3      36.0 AVG 997 108.0%      178.7             7.4      18.4 Median 993 107.6%      157.8             6.6      18.5 Mode 968          70.8             3.0        9.0 STD 222 24.0%      134.4             5.6      10.6 33% 900 97.5%        92.5             3.9      12.7 67% 1065 115.3%      235.6             9.8      24.3

 

 

Batting AVG is the number of stations where the forecast had the lowest absolute station error divided by the total number of forecast stations (25)

 

Rank Forecaster Lowest Station Error Count Bat AVG 1 Don Sutherland PVD ABE MDT SBY 4 0.160 1 The Snowman ABE PHL IAD DCA 4 0.160 3 Steve Okonski NYC RIC ORF 3 0.120 3 WXCASTER1 CAR CON BTV 3 0.120 5 Duke kc2dux* EWR BWI 2 0.080 5 shanabe BDR ACY 2 0.080 7 answered7* BGR 1 0.040 7 ilibov ALB 1 0.040 7 Jeff Rudacille BGM 1 0.040 7 Mitch Volk BDR 1 0.040 7 NNEWX70* ORH 1 0.040 7 pablopicasso* BOS 1 0.040 7 PORN BDL 1 0.040 7 Raven RDU 1 0.040 7 scubadiver44* EWR 1 0.040 7 Toms92GP* BOS 1 0.040 7 Zak Brisko* PWM 1 0.040 18 attml*   0 0.000 18 Bradley Lear*   0 0.000 18 Chaz*   0 0.000 18 CoasterBGW   0 0.000 18 CONSENSUS   0 0.000 18 dmcguriman   0 0.000 18 DON ROONEY   0 0.000 18 FrankVito*   0 0.000 18 GINX   0 0.000 18 GSB Snowman*   0 0.000 18 Herb@MAWS   0 0.000 18 Jack Ziegler   0 0.000 18 mike murphy*   0 0.000 18 RobBensalemSnow*   0 0.000 18 rosenfeld   0 0.000 18 smadsen8486   0 0.000 18 Steven DiMartino*   0 0.000 18 TQ   0 0.000 18 wxfixer*   0 0.000