NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from '22^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘07-FEB-21’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Best Forecasts

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with No Error)

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ ORH

MAX forecast best @ JFK

MAX forecast less than observed @ none

MIN forecasts best @ PWM … MDT … ACY … BWI … DCA

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BWI … DCA

Strong correlation (R = 0.982) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

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Storm-total snowfalls for SUN 07-FEB-21 thru MON 08-FEB-21 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of three timely reports within 3.5 SM of the station carried by the PNS bulletin from BOX.

SBY STP estimated based on one report from the forecast station/s county (Wicomico) carried by AKQ/s PNS bulletin.

Average forecast area snow-to-liquid ratio (SN:H20) weighted by station accumulation.

SN:H20 not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least 0.1": 25 (93%)

Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...

4" - 7 (28%)

6" - 4 (16%)

MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)

BDR: 0.49"

ORH: 0.47"

JFK: 0.46"

MAX liquid precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):

SBY: 0.78"

ORF: 0.77"