NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from '22^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘31-JAN-21’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Best Forecasts

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with No Error)

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ ALB … JFK … RIC

MAX forecast best @ ORH … BDR … ABE

MAX forecast less than observed @ ABE

MIN forecasts best @ PVD … ACY

MIN forecasts more than observed @ PVD

Strong correlation (R = 0.971) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

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Storm-total snowfalls for SUN 31-JAN-21 thru WED 04-FEB-21 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA STP based on METAR's present weather and hourly P-group data.

SBY STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation technique using four timely reports carried by the AKQPNS bulletin within 6 SM of the station.

Average forecast area snow-to-liquid ratio (SN:H20) weighted by station accumulation.

SN:H20 not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least 0.1": 25 (93%)

Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...

4" - 18 (67%)

8" - 13 (48%)

12" - 8 (30%)

18" - 2 (7%)

24" - 1 (4%)

MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)

ABE: 2"

EWR: 1.66"

JFK: 1.41"