NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from '22^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘16-DEC-20’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Best Forecasts

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with No Error)

None

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ BTV … HYA …ORH … BDR …BDL …ISP … PHL … EWR

MAX forecast best @ PWM …CON … BOS …ALB … BGM

MAX forecast less than observed PWM … CON … ALB … BGM

MIN forecasts best @ ABE … BWI

MIN forecasts more than observed @

Strong correlation (R = 0.945) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

Dashed forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87.4% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

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Storm-total snowfalls for SUN thru TUE from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of five timely reports within 3 SM of the station carried by the BOSPNS bulletin.

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Average forecast area snow-to-liquid ratio (SN:H20) is weighted by depth.

SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing >= 0.1": 20 (74%)

Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...

4" - 16 (76%)

8" - 11 (53%)

12" - 7 (33%)

18" - 3 (14%)

24" - 2 (10%)

MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 10:1)

BGM: 2.8"

ALB: 2.0"

BOS: 1.3"