Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #8 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ ACY … RIC

MAX forecast best @ ISP … ABE … MDT

MAX forecast less than observed @ ISP

MIN forecasts best @ CAR … BGR … PWM … CON … BTV … BOS … HYA … ORH … PVD … BDR … ALB … BGM … EWR … BWI … DCA … SBY

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR … PWM … CON … BOS … HYA …PVD … BDR … BDL … SBY

Strong correlation (R = 0.963) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

Data points above (below) redline ==> over (under) forecast

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Table of storm-total snowfall by station for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

Exceptions: none

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least Trace - 24 (89%)

Given a station observed measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:

4" - 10 (42%)

8" - 5 (21%)

12" - 2 (8%)

16" - 1 (4%)

Melt-water

ISP - 1.28"

MDT - 1.13"

PHL - 1.03"

JFK - 0.91"

Max precipitation: ISP - 1.28"

New daily records:

21-MAR-18 (7)

ISP - 14" (1.8"; 2013)

ABE - 13.2" (4.3"; 1964)

MDT - 11.9" (7.5"; 1964)

JFK - 8.4" (0.8"; 1993)

EWR - 7.9" (5.3"; 1958)

PHL - 6.7" (4.7"; 1932)

IAD - 4.8" (2.3"; 1964)

22-MAR-18 (1)

ISP - 4.4" (3"; 1992)

SFC analysis: 03z …THU 22-MAR-18