Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #6 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ BGR … PHL

MAX forecast best @ PWM … BOS …ORH

MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM … ACY

MIN forecasts best @ HYA …BGM … ABE …MDT

MIN forecasts more than observed @ MDT

Good correlation (R = 0.993) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

Data points above (below) redline ==> over (under) forecast

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41 …PNS … and F6 bulletins.

HYA

METARs indicated trace STP

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least:

Trace - 23 (85%)

4" - 13 (57%)

8" - 8 (35%)

12" - 3 (13%)

16" - 1 (4%)

Melt-water

PWM - 1.38"

ORH - 0.99"

PWM - 0.98"

Max precipitation: ACT - 2.11"

New daily records: 5

07-MAR-18

ISP - 6.5" (2"; 2013)

PHL - 6" (4"; 1969)

BDR - 6" (1.2"; 1969)

EWR - 4.6" (2.3"; 1969)

JFK - 2.8" (1.7"; 1969)