Sum Square | STP | TOTAL Absolute | AVG Absolute | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rank | Forecaster | Class | Entry Date / LT | CAR | 0.90 | BGR | 2.10 | PWM | 7.30 | CON | 6.00 | BTV | 0.60 | BOS | 5.60 | HYA | 0.05 | ORH | 6.00 | PVD | 5.20 | BDR | 4.80 | BDL | 5.30 | Forecaster | ALB | 1.80 | BGM | 1.70 | ISP | 1.20 | JFK | 2.30 | ABE | 6.50 | MDT | 3.40 | PHL | 1.20 | ACY | 0.05 | EWR | 2.80 | BWI | 2.20 | IAD | 1.50 | DCA | 0.20 | SBY | 0.00 | RIC | 0.00 | ORF | 0.00 | RDU | 0.00 | Forecaster | Class | 4casts | Error (") | Error Z | %MPROV over AVG | Rank | 68.7 | Abs Error (") |
Error Z | %MPROV over AVG | Rank | Error (") | Error Z | %MPROV over AVG | Rank | Error (") | Error Z | %MPROV over AVG | Rank | RSQ | RSQ Z | %MPROV over AVG | Rank | Forecaster |
1 | HeWhoShallNotBeNamed | PWSP | 02/16/18 15:00 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 3.00 | 0.90 | 3.00 | 4.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 5.00 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 4.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 1.30 | HeWhoShallNotBeNamed | 2.00 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 1.50 | 0.30 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 5.00 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.70 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | HeWhoShallNotBeNamed | PWSP | 23 | 63 | -1.524 | 36% | 1 | 63.5 | 5.2 | -0.585 | 53% | 4 | 29.9 | -1.116 | 16% | 1 | 1.30 | -1.233 | 15% | 1 | 0.602 | 0.916 | 34% | 3 | HeWhoShallNotBeNamed |
2 | NWS ER WFOs | GOVT | 02/16/18 22:30 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 3.00 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 6.00 | 0.40 | 4.00 | 3.95 | 5.00 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 0.80 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 5.00 | 0.30 | NWS ER WFOs | 2.00 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 5.00 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 4.00 | 0.60 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 5.00 | 2.20 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.50 | - | 1.00 | 0.80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | NWS ER WFOs | GOVT | 23 | 73 | -1.062 | 25% | 2 | 74.5 | 5.8 | -0.526 | 48% | 5 | 30.4 | -1.015 | 14% | 2 | 1.32 | -1.112 | 13% | 2 | 0.532 | 0.501 | 19% | 4 | NWS ER WFOs |
3 | donsutherland1 | Senior | 02/16/18 22:29 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 2.20 | 0.10 | 2.70 | 4.60 | 2.20 | 3.80 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3.20 | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 3.60 | 2.40 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 3.70 | 1.10 | 3.80 | 1.50 | donsutherland1 | 1.60 | 0.20 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 1.30 | 3.90 | 2.60 | 4.20 | 0.80 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.70 | 1.50 | - | 1.60 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | donsutherland1 | Senior | 23 | 84 | -0.630 | 15% | 3 | 60.1 | 8.6 | -0.251 | 23% | 8 | 33.0 | -0.491 | 7% | 6 | 1.43 | -0.481 | 6% | 6 | 0.460 | 0.068 | 3% | 6 | donsutherland1 |
4 | Brad Yehl | Senior | 02/16/18 22:31 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 5.30 | 2.40 | 3.60 | 0.05 | 0.55 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 3.20 | 1.60 | 2.60 | 2.70 | Brad Yehl | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.70 | 0.60 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 0.60 | 1.20 | - | 0.05 | - | 2.20 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.10 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Brad Yehl | Senior | 23 | 86 | -0.538 | 13% | 4 | 37.9 | 30.8 | 1.927 | -176% | 12 | 32.9 | -0.511 | 7% | 5 | 1.43 | -0.506 | 6% | 5 | 0.781 | 1.990 | 74% | 1 | Brad Yehl |
5 | Herb @MAWS | Senior | 02/16/18 18:27 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 1.70 | 0.40 | 2.90 | 4.40 | 2.20 | 3.80 | 0.70 | 0.10 | 5.00 | 0.60 | 3.10 | 3.05 | 4.60 | 1.40 | 7.00 | 1.80 | 5.80 | 1.00 | 5.50 | 0.20 | Herb @MAWS | 1.30 | 0.50 | 1.70 | - | 5.80 | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 3.90 | 2.60 | 2.80 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Herb @MAWS | Senior | 23 | 87 | -0.493 | 12% | 5 | 67.1 | 1.6 | -0.939 | 86% | 2 | 32.4 | -0.612 | 9% | 3 | 1.41 | -0.627 | 7% | 3 | 0.461 | 0.076 | 3% | 5 | Herb @MAWS |
6 | iralibov | Senior | 02/16/18 15:22 | 1.20 | 0.30 | 2.20 | 0.10 | 2.40 | 4.90 | 1.70 | 4.30 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 4.60 | 1.00 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 5.20 | 0.80 | 4.50 | 0.70 | 3.80 | 1.00 | 4.20 | 1.10 | iralibov | 1.50 | 0.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 2.30 | 1.10 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 0.05 | - | 4.20 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | iralibov | Senior | 23 | 87 | -0.477 | 11% | 6 | 61.0 | 7.7 | -0.335 | 31% | 7 | 32.5 | -0.602 | 8% | 4 | 1.41 | -0.615 | 7% | 4 | 0.432 | -0.101 | -4% | 7 | iralibov |
7 | TQ | Senior | 02/16/18 22:18 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 3.00 | 0.90 | 2.50 | 4.80 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 4.20 | 2.00 | 2.80 | 4.00 | 1.30 | TQ | 1.50 | 0.30 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 1.80 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 4.00 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.05 | - | 1.00 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 1.70 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.30 | - | - | 0.05 | 0.05 | - | - | - | - | TQ | Senior | 24 | 92 | -0.260 | 6% | 7 | 40.6 | 28.1 | 1.662 | -152% | 11 | 35.3 | -0.028 | 0% | 7 | 1.47 | -0.281 | 3% | 7 | 0.621 | 1.030 | 38% | 2 | TQ |
8 | Mitchel Volk | Senior | 02/16/18 22:26 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 2.00 | 5.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 4.50 | 4.45 | 5.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 5.20 | 0.40 | 4.50 | 0.80 | Mitchel Volk | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 4.30 | 3.10 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 4.60 | 1.90 | 4.10 | 0.70 | 5.60 | 4.40 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 5.40 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 0.30 | 2.30 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Mitchel Volk | Senior | 23 | 110 | 0.477 | -11% | 8 | 69.3 | 0.6 | -1.036 | 95% | 1 | 36.5 | 0.214 | -3% | 8 | 1.59 | 0.366 | -4% | 8 | 0.345 | -0.621 | -23% | 9 | Mitchel Volk |
9 | Shillelagh | Chief | 02/16/18 21:49 | 0.80 | 0.10 | 2.00 | 0.10 | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 4.30 | 1.30 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 5.50 | 0.30 | 4.30 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 2.30 | Shillelagh | 1.10 | 0.70 | 1.30 | 0.40 | 7.00 | 5.80 | 4.80 | 2.50 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 0.90 | 2.10 | 0.90 | 0.05 | - | 5.00 | 2.20 | 0.50 | 1.70 | 0.05 | 1.45 | 0.05 | 0.15 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Shillelagh | Chief | 23 | 111 | 0.552 | -13% | 9 | 62.6 | 6.2 | -0.492 | 45% | 6 | 37.1 | 0.325 | -5% | 10 | 1.61 | 0.500 | -6% | 10 | 0.343 | -0.632 | -24% | 10 | Shillelagh |
10 | JessicaCain | Intern | 02/16/18 22:27 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.80 | 5.50 | 1.70 | 4.30 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 2.90 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 2.00 | JessicaCain | 1.10 | 0.70 | 1.40 | 0.30 | 2.30 | 1.10 | 2.60 | 0.30 | 2.10 | 4.40 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.30 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 2.80 | - | 0.40 | 1.80 | 0.20 | 1.30 | 0.20 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | JessicaCain | Intern | 23 | 113 | 0.601 | -14% | 10 | 43.0 | 25.7 | 1.427 | -130% | 10 | 36.5 | 0.214 | -3% | 9 | 1.59 | 0.366 | -4% | 9 | 0.419 | -0.179 | -7% | 8 | JessicaCain |
11 | WeatherT | Senior | 02/16/18 21:19 | 0.05 | 0.85 | 2.50 | 0.40 | 2.30 | 5.00 | 1.60 | 4.40 | 0.05 | 0.55 | 5.80 | 0.20 | 4.30 | 4.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 4.00 | 1.30 | WeatherT | 2.20 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 5.50 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 4.40 | 1.00 | 4.20 | 3.00 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 3.80 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.20 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | WeatherT | Senior | 23 | 123 | 1.041 | -25% | 11 | 64.5 | 4.2 | -0.683 | 62% | 3 | 39.8 | 0.879 | -12% | 11 | 1.73 | 1.166 | -14% | 11 | 0.269 | -1.075 | -40% | 11 | WeatherT |
12 | Donald Rosenfeld | Senior | 02/16/18 22:29 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 1.00 | 6.30 | 0.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 4.25 | 0.55 | 2.50 | 2.80 | Donald Rosenfeld | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 4.00 | 2.80 | 3.50 | 1.20 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 4.50 | 1.10 | 4.50 | 3.30 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | Donald Rosenfeld | Senior | 25 | 153 | 2.312 | -55% | 12 | 59.3 | 9.4 | -0.168 | 15% | 9 | 49.0 | 2.742 | -38% | 12 | 1.96 | 2.456 | -29% | 12 | 0.119 | -1.973 | -74% | 12 | Donald Rosenfeld |
Forecast Parameters | CAR | Error | BGR | Error | PWM | Error | CON | Error | BTV | Error | BOS | Error | HYA | Error | ORH | Error | PVD | Error | BDR | Error | BDL | Error | ALB | Error | BGM | Error | ISP | Error | JFK | Error | ABE | Error | MDT | Error | PHL | Error | ACY | Error | EWR | Error | BWI | Error | IAD | Error | DCA | Error | SBY | Error | RIC | Error | ORF | Error | RDU | Error | Forecast Parameters | 279 | Error | Error Z | % MPRV | Rank | STP | Error | Error Z | %MPRV | Rank | Error | Error Z | %MPRV | Rank | Error | Error Z | %MPRV | Rank | RSQ | RSQ Z | %MPRV | Rank | Forecast Parameters | |||||
Rookie | - | Consensus | MIN | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 3.30 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 2.80 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 2.50 | 0.20 | MIN | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.60 | - | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.50 | - | 0.00 | - | 1.00 | - | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.05 | - | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | MIN | 23 | 62.6 | -1.524 | -55.2% | 1 | 37.9 | 0.6 | -1.036 | -175.9% | 1 | 29.9 | -1.116 | -38.4% | 1 | 1.30 | -1.233 | -29.0% | 1 | 0.119 | -1.973 | -73.5% | 1 | MIN | |
Intern | 1 | MAX | 3.00 | 2.10 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 4.00 | 6.30 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 6.00 | 2.80 | 4.50 | 4.45 | 5.20 | 4.00 | 7.00 | 4.20 | 5.80 | 2.80 | 5.50 | 2.80 | MAX | 2.20 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 7.00 | 5.80 | 4.80 | 2.50 | 5.00 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 2.30 | 5.60 | 4.40 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 5.40 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.50 | 1.45 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | MAX | 25 | 152.7 | 2.312 | 36.4% | 12 | 74.5 | 30.8 | 1.927 | 94.6% | 12 | 49.0 | 2.742 | 15.6% | 12 | 1.96 | 2.456 | 14.5% | 12 | 0.781 | 1.990 | 74.2% | 12 | MAX | ||
Journey | - | AVG | 0.74 | 0.63 | 1.88 | 0.77 | 2.48 | 4.83 | 2.23 | 3.77 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 4.18 | 1.53 | 3.02 | 2.97 | 3.94 | 2.06 | 4.31 | 1.38 | 4.10 | 1.00 | 3.87 | 1.47 | AVG | 1.44 | 0.49 | 1.43 | 0.42 | 3.61 | 2.56 | 3.29 | 1.44 | 3.95 | 2.55 | 3.43 | 1.03 | 2.68 | 1.60 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 3.66 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | - | - | AVG | 23 | 98.4 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 7 | 58.6 | 11.2 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 7 | 35.4 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 7 | 1.52 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 7 | 0.449 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 7 | AVG | ||
Senior | 9 | Median | 0.65 | 0.55 | 2.10 | 0.90 | 2.45 | 4.85 | 2.30 | 3.70 | 0.45 | 0.35 | 4.10 | 1.50 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 4.25 | 1.30 | 4.13 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 1.30 | Median | 1.40 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 0.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 4.00 | 0.85 | 2.45 | 1.25 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 4.00 | 1.30 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 0.85 | 0.55 | 0.35 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Median | 23 | 89.8 | -0.368 | 8.8% | 7 | 61.8 | 7.0 | -0.413 | 37.7% | 7 | 34.2 | -0.259 | 3.6% | 7 | 1.45 | -0.381 | 4.5% | 7 | 0.446 | -0.016 | -0.6% | 7 | Median | ||
GOVT | 1 | Mode | 0.00 | 0.90 | 3.00 | 0.90 | 2.00 | 5.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 4.00 | 1.30 | Mode | 1.00 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 4.00 | 0.60 | #N/A | #N/A | 0.05 | - | 5.00 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 0.70 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Mode | 23 | Mode | |||||||||||||||||||||||
PWSP | - | STD | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.94 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.61 | 1.07 | 0.92 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.50 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.81 | STD | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.26 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.15 | 0.52 | 1.47 | 1.34 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 1.31 | 0.72 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.79 | 0.45 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.35 | 0.35 | - | - | STD | 1 | 23.5 | 1.000 | 23.9% | 3.5 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 1.000 | 91.3% | 3.5 | 5.0 | 1.000 | 14.0% | 3.5 | 0.18 | 1.000 | 11.8% | 3.5 | 16.7% | 1.000 | 37.3% | 3.5 | STD | ||
TOT | 11 | 25% | ile | 0.04 | 0.18 | 1.15 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 4.38 | 1.70 | 3.00 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 3.15 | 0.60 | 1.88 | 1.83 | 3.48 | 1.30 | 3.53 | 0.60 | 3.58 | 0.48 | 3.23 | 1.03 | 25% | 1.08 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 0.28 | 2.10 | 1.00 | 2.45 | 1.05 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 2.73 | 0.60 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 0.05 | - | 2.65 | 0.95 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.28 | 0.19 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 25% | 23 | 85.2 | -0.561 | -13.5% | 4 | 55.2 | 4.9 | -0.610 | -21.0% | 4 | 32.4 | -0.604 | -3.4% | 4 | 1.41 | -0.618 | -4.7% | 4 | 34.4% | -0.624 | -23.3% | 4 | ||
75% | ile | 1.03 | 0.90 | 2.63 | 0.95 | 2.93 | 5.30 | 3.00 | 4.30 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 5.00 | 2.45 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 4.70 | 2.53 | 5.13 | 1.83 | 5.00 | 1.23 | 4.28 | 2.08 | 75% | 1.70 | 0.73 | 1.78 | 0.55 | 5.13 | 3.93 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 4.50 | 2.70 | 4.25 | 1.23 | 3.68 | 2.48 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 4.63 | 1.90 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 0.93 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 75% | 23 | 111.7 | 0.564 | 13.4% | 9 | 65.2 | 13.5 | 0.230 | 55.7% | 9 | 36.6 | 0.242 | 8.5% | 9 | 1.59 | 0.400 | 7.3% | 9 | 55.0% | 0.605 | 22.5% | 9 |