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Total Absolute |
Forecaster |
CAR |
83.1 |
BGR |
42.1 |
PWM |
48.1 |
CON |
27.0 |
BTV |
23.7 |
BOS |
29.5 |
ORH |
37.2 |
PVD |
22.0 |
BDR |
27.2 |
BDL |
20.0 |
ALB |
10.5 |
BGM |
21.6 |
Forecaster |
NYC |
32.15 |
ABE |
36.25 |
MDT |
38.0 |
PHL |
27.2 |
ACY |
25.7 |
EWR |
36.4 |
BWI |
35.15 |
IAD |
34.35 |
DCA |
22.2 |
SBY |
18.8 |
RIC |
15.1 |
ORF |
5.05 |
RDU |
1.45 |
Forecaster |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV over PORN |
AVG Error |
snowman |
61.5 |
21.6 |
52.3 |
10.2 |
43.5 |
4.6 |
42.5 |
15.5 |
53.4 |
29.7 |
41.2 |
11.7 |
43.5 |
6.3 |
19.5 |
2.5 |
17.5 |
9.7 |
28.5 |
8.5 |
46.5 |
36.0 |
47.5 |
25.9 |
snowman |
19.5 |
12.7 |
21.5 |
14.8 |
21.8 |
16.2 |
19.3 |
7.9 |
11.5 |
14.2 |
18.5 |
17.9 |
15.4 |
19.8 |
14.5 |
19.9 |
13.6 |
8.6 |
11 |
8 |
9.4 |
5.7 |
11.5 |
6.5 |
3.2 |
1.8 |
snowman |
1 |
335.4 |
-0.983 |
13.3% |
13.4 |
donsutherland1 |
97.5 |
14.4 |
62.2 |
20.1 |
50.2 |
2.1 |
41.7 |
14.7 |
66.3 |
42.6 |
26.5 |
3.0 |
42.5 |
5.3 |
21.2 |
0.8 |
13.9 |
13.3 |
34.7 |
14.7 |
42.2 |
31.7 |
52.8 |
31.2 |
donsutherland1 |
15.6 |
16.6 |
23.7 |
12.6 |
22.0 |
16.0 |
16.8 |
10.4 |
9.7 |
16.0 |
13.7 |
22.7 |
18.0 |
17.2 |
20.6 |
13.8 |
17.4 |
4.8 |
9 |
10 |
12.5 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
0.05 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
donsutherland1 |
2 |
340.2 |
-0.944 |
12.0% |
13.6 |
MarkHofmann |
65.0 |
18.1 |
70.0 |
27.9 |
67.0 |
18.9 |
55.0 |
28.0 |
50.0 |
26.3 |
42.0 |
12.5 |
37.0 |
0.2 |
42.0 |
20.0 |
45.0 |
17.8 |
52.0 |
32.0 |
62.0 |
51.5 |
55.0 |
33.4 |
MarkHofmann |
27.0 |
5.2 |
32.0 |
4.2 |
28.0 |
10.0 |
20.0 |
7.2 |
18.0 |
7.7 |
25.0 |
11.4 |
23.0 |
12.2 |
17.0 |
17.4 |
14.0 |
8.2 |
16 |
3 |
15.0 |
0.1 |
12.0 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
6.6 |
MarkHofmann |
3 |
386.4 |
-0.564 |
0.1% |
15.5 |
P-O-R-N |
90.5 |
7.4 |
69.1 |
27.0 |
63.4 |
15.3 |
58.5 |
31.5 |
70.0 |
46.3 |
40.7 |
11.2 |
59.1 |
21.9 |
33.6 |
11.6 |
27.6 |
0.40 |
44.8 |
24.8 |
55.5 |
45.0 |
71.5 |
49.9 |
P-O-R-N |
26.1 |
6.1 |
31.2 |
5.0 |
30.4 |
7.6 |
21.6 |
5.6 |
17.2 |
8.5 |
28.0 |
8.4 |
19.2 |
16.0 |
21.5 |
12.9 |
15.8 |
6.4 |
11 |
8 |
12.7 |
2.4 |
7.4 |
2.4 |
6.5 |
5.1 |
P-O-R-N |
4 |
386.8 |
-0.560 |
0.0% |
15.5 |
CONSENSUS |
94.3 |
11.2 |
72.5 |
30.4 |
63.4 |
15.3 |
59.1 |
32.1 |
73.2 |
49.5 |
44.2 |
14.7 |
60.5 |
23.3 |
36.7 |
14.7 |
34.3 |
7.1 |
45.2 |
25.2 |
59.2 |
48.7 |
64.9 |
43.3 |
CONSENSUS |
28.7 |
3.4 |
35.6 |
0.6 |
34.5 |
3.5 |
24.8 |
2.4 |
17.9 |
7.8 |
28.2 |
8.2 |
22.1 |
13.0 |
22.3 |
12.0 |
18.8 |
3.4 |
13 |
5 |
14.1 |
1.0 |
9.6 |
4.5 |
8.6 |
7.1 |
CONSENSUS |
5 |
387.9 |
-0.551 |
-0.3% |
15.5 |
Roger Smith |
78.0 |
5.1 |
55.0 |
12.9 |
44.0 |
4.1 |
42.0 |
15.0 |
90.0 |
66.3 |
55.0 |
25.5 |
65.0 |
27.8 |
45.0 |
23.0 |
45.0 |
17.8 |
48.0 |
28.0 |
50.0 |
39.5 |
60.0 |
38.4 |
Roger Smith |
35.0 |
2.9 |
30.0 |
6.2 |
20.0 |
18.0 |
18.0 |
9.2 |
15.0 |
10.7 |
30.0 |
6.4 |
22.0 |
13.2 |
22.0 |
12.4 |
17.0 |
5.2 |
15 |
4 |
12.0 |
3.1 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
Roger Smith |
6 |
399.9 |
-0.453 |
-3.4% |
16.0 |
snocat918 |
82.0 |
1.1 |
76.0 |
33.9 |
77.0 |
28.9 |
55.0 |
28.0 |
75.0 |
51.3 |
50.0 |
20.5 |
60.0 |
22.8 |
38.0 |
16.0 |
44.0 |
16.8 |
52.0 |
32.0 |
55.0 |
44.5 |
64.0 |
42.4 |
snocat918 |
39.0 |
6.9 |
34.0 |
2.2 |
42.0 |
4.1 |
41.0 |
13.8 |
20.0 |
5.7 |
34.0 |
2.4 |
20.0 |
15.2 |
22.0 |
12.4 |
22.0 |
0.2 |
14 |
5 |
18.0 |
2.9 |
6.0 |
1.0 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
snocat918 |
7 |
413.2 |
-0.343 |
-6.8% |
16.5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
100.0 |
16.9 |
90.0 |
47.9 |
70.0 |
21.9 |
60.0 |
33.0 |
75.0 |
51.3 |
40.0 |
10.5 |
62.0 |
24.8 |
40.0 |
18.0 |
30.0 |
2.8 |
45.0 |
25.0 |
49.0 |
38.5 |
85.0 |
63.4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
30.0 |
2.2 |
35.0 |
1.2 |
40.0 |
2.1 |
25.0 |
2.2 |
16.0 |
9.7 |
33.0 |
3.4 |
25.0 |
10.2 |
30.0 |
4.3 |
22.0 |
0.2 |
10 |
9 |
20.0 |
4.9 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
10.0 |
8.6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
8 |
413.7 |
-0.339 |
-7.0% |
16.5 |
emoran |
115.0 |
31.9 |
80.0 |
37.9 |
45.0 |
3.1 |
50.0 |
23.0 |
75.0 |
51.3 |
30.0 |
0.5 |
38.0 |
0.8 |
28.0 |
6.0 |
20.0 |
7.2 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
60.0 |
49.5 |
70.0 |
48.4 |
emoran |
20.0 |
12.2 |
23.0 |
13.3 |
27.0 |
11.0 |
15.0 |
12.2 |
15.0 |
10.7 |
20.0 |
16.4 |
15.0 |
20.2 |
15.0 |
19.4 |
10.0 |
12.2 |
10 |
9 |
10.0 |
5.1 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
12.0 |
10.6 |
emoran |
9 |
426.4 |
-0.235 |
-10.2% |
17.1 |
Tinguschristopher |
59.3 |
23.8 |
62.1 |
20.0 |
57.6 |
9.5 |
56.9 |
29.9 |
74.8 |
51.1 |
39.6 |
10.1 |
58.4 |
21.2 |
38.4 |
16.4 |
33.5 |
6.3 |
34.2 |
14.2 |
67.9 |
57.4 |
63.4 |
41.8 |
Tinguschristopher |
22.3 |
9.9 |
58.7 |
22.5 |
56.2 |
18.3 |
22.6 |
4.6 |
24.3 |
1.4 |
23.9 |
12.5 |
24.7 |
10.5 |
23.4 |
11.0 |
23.2 |
1.0 |
26 |
8 |
22.2 |
7.1 |
21.7 |
16.7 |
18.9 |
17.5 |
Tinguschristopher |
10 |
442.0 |
-0.106 |
-14.3% |
17.7 |
TQ |
120.0 |
36.9 |
70.0 |
27.9 |
65.0 |
16.9 |
55.0 |
28.0 |
95.0 |
71.3 |
30.0 |
0.5 |
70.0 |
32.8 |
25.0 |
3.0 |
20.0 |
7.2 |
45.0 |
25.0 |
70.0 |
59.5 |
85.0 |
63.4 |
TQ |
20.0 |
12.2 |
40.0 |
3.8 |
35.0 |
3.0 |
20.0 |
7.2 |
15.0 |
10.7 |
25.0 |
11.4 |
25.0 |
10.2 |
20.0 |
14.4 |
20.0 |
2.2 |
10 |
9 |
15.0 |
0.1 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
10.0 |
8.6 |
TQ |
11 |
469.7 |
0.122 |
-21.4% |
18.8 |
duxpond |
101.0 |
17.9 |
76.0 |
33.9 |
85.0 |
36.9 |
81.0 |
54.0 |
47.0 |
23.3 |
63.0 |
33.5 |
77.0 |
39.8 |
41.0 |
19.0 |
62.0 |
34.8 |
65.0 |
45.0 |
78.0 |
67.5 |
47.0 |
25.4 |
duxpond |
32.0 |
0.15 |
36.0 |
0.25 |
36.0 |
2.0 |
31.0 |
3.8 |
24.0 |
1.7 |
22.0 |
14.4 |
13.0 |
22.2 |
13.0 |
21.4 |
12.0 |
10.2 |
6 |
13 |
2.0 |
13.1 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
duxpond |
12 |
536.5 |
0.671 |
-38.7% |
21.5 |
Brad Yehl |
124.8 |
41.7 |
104.2 |
62.1 |
84.7 |
36.6 |
78.4 |
51.4 |
89.6 |
65.9 |
64.2 |
34.7 |
92.4 |
55.2 |
56.7 |
34.7 |
46.4 |
19.2 |
62.8 |
42.8 |
70.2 |
59.7 |
90.4 |
68.8 |
Brad Yehl |
44.2 |
12.1 |
60.2 |
24.0 |
56.4 |
18.5 |
38.7 |
11.5 |
34.9 |
9.2 |
42.8 |
6.4 |
36.4 |
1.3 |
39.2 |
4.9 |
30.5 |
8.3 |
19 |
0.2 |
22.7 |
7.6 |
12.8 |
7.8 |
11.7 |
10.3 |
Brad Yehl |
13 |
694.6 |
1.972 |
-79.6% |
27.8 |
Mitchel volk |
120.0 |
36.9 |
100.0 |
57.9 |
85.0 |
36.9 |
100.0 |
73.0 |
90.0 |
66.3 |
70.0 |
40.5 |
89.0 |
51.8 |
60.0 |
38.0 |
58.0 |
30.8 |
64.0 |
44.0 |
75.0 |
64.5 |
56.0 |
34.4 |
Mitchel volk |
55.0 |
22.9 |
55.0 |
18.8 |
51.0 |
13.1 |
45.0 |
17.8 |
20.0 |
5.7 |
56.0 |
19.6 |
35.0 |
0.15 |
35.0 |
0.65 |
30.0 |
7.8 |
30 |
11 |
25.0 |
9.9 |
20.0 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
18.6 |
Mitchel volk |
14 |
736.0 |
2.313 |
-90.3% |
29.4 |
FCST Statistics |
CAR |
Err |
BGR |
Err |
PWM |
Err |
CON |
Err |
BTV |
Err |
BOS |
Err |
ORH |
Err |
PVD |
Err |
BDR |
Err |
BDL |
Err |
ALB |
Err |
BGM |
Err |
FCST Statistics |
NYC |
Err |
ABE |
Err |
MDT |
Err |
PHL |
Err |
ACY |
Err |
EWR |
Err |
BWI |
Err |
IAD |
Err |
DCA |
Err |
SBY |
Err |
RIC |
Err |
ORF |
Err |
RDU |
Err |
FCST Statistics |
Rank |
Error |
Z |
%MPRV |
|
MIN |
59.3 |
1.1 |
55.0 |
12.9 |
44.0 |
2.1 |
41.7 |
14.7 |
47.0 |
23.3 |
26.5 |
0.50 |
37.0 |
0.20 |
21.2 |
0.8 |
13.9 |
0.4 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
42.2 |
31.7 |
47.0 |
25.4 |
MIN |
15.6 |
0.15 |
23.0 |
0.2 |
20.0 |
2.0 |
15.0 |
2.2 |
9.7 |
1.40 |
13.7 |
2.40 |
13.0 |
0.1 |
13.0 |
0.7 |
10.0 |
0.2 |
6.0 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
MIN |
1 |
335 |
-0.983 |
-90% |
13 |
MAX |
124.8 |
41.7 |
104.2 |
62.1 |
85.0 |
36.9 |
100.0 |
73.0 |
95.0 |
71.3 |
70.0 |
40.5 |
92.4 |
55.2 |
60.0 |
38.0 |
62.0 |
34.8 |
65.0 |
45.0 |
78.0 |
67.5 |
90.4 |
68.8 |
MAX |
55.0 |
22.9 |
60.2 |
24.0 |
56.4 |
18.5 |
45.0 |
17.8 |
34.9 |
16.0 |
56.0 |
22.7 |
36.4 |
22.2 |
39.2 |
21.4 |
30.5 |
12.2 |
30.0 |
12.8 |
25.0 |
13.1 |
21.7 |
16.7 |
20.0 |
18.6 |
MAX |
14 |
736 |
2.313 |
13% |
29 |
AVG |
96.0 |
20.3 |
75.9 |
33.8 |
65.9 |
19.0 |
61.0 |
34.0 |
74.7 |
51.0 |
45.8 |
16.7 |
62.4 |
25.2 |
38.9 |
17.0 |
36.9 |
14.0 |
47.9 |
27.9 |
61.1 |
50.6 |
66.5 |
44.9 |
AVG |
30.4 |
8.6 |
38.0 |
8.8 |
36.8 |
9.7 |
26.1 |
8.3 |
19.0 |
8.1 |
29.4 |
11.0 |
23.0 |
12.4 |
23.2 |
12.0 |
19.4 |
5.4 |
14.5 |
7.2 |
15.5 |
4.6 |
10.2 |
5.3 |
9.6 |
8.1 |
AVG |
8 |
455 |
0.000 |
-18% |
18 |
Median |
97.5 |
17.9 |
72.5 |
30.4 |
65.0 |
16.9 |
56.9 |
29.9 |
75.0 |
51.3 |
42.0 |
12.5 |
60.5 |
23.3 |
38.4 |
16.4 |
34.3 |
13.3 |
45.2 |
25.2 |
60.0 |
49.5 |
64.0 |
42.4 |
Median |
28.7 |
6.9 |
35.0 |
5.0 |
35.0 |
10.0 |
22.6 |
7.2 |
17.9 |
8.5 |
28.0 |
11.4 |
22.1 |
13.0 |
22.0 |
12.4 |
18.8 |
5.2 |
13.4 |
8.3 |
15.0 |
3.1 |
9.6 |
4.5 |
8.6 |
7.1 |
Median |
8 |
413 |
-0.341 |
-7% |
17 |
Mode |
120.0 |
36.9 |
70.0 |
27.9 |
85.0 |
36.9 |
55.0 |
28.0 |
75.0 |
51.3 |
30.0 |
0.5 |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
20.0 |
7.2 |
52.0 |
32.0 |
#N/A |
#N/A |
85.0 |
63.4 |
Mode |
20.0 |
12.2 |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
20.0 |
7.2 |
15.0 |
10.7 |
25.0 |
11.4 |
25.0 |
10.2 |
22.0 |
12.4 |
22.0 |
0.2 |
10.0 |
8.8 |
15.0 |
0.1 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
Mode |
|
|
|
|
|
STD |
20.9 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
14.3 |
12.7 |
16.4 |
16.4 |
14.6 |
14.6 |
13.9 |
13.3 |
17.2 |
17.2 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
14.7 |
10.4 |
11.3 |
11.3 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
13.4 |
13.4 |
STD |
10.9 |
6.5 |
12.3 |
8.4 |
12.0 |
6.5 |
9.8 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
3.9 |
10.7 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
6.4 |
7.5 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
3.9 |
7.0 |
3.6 |
6.2 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
STD |
4 |
122 |
1.000 |
31% |
5 |
33% |
90.5 |
14.4 |
70.0 |
27.9 |
63.4 |
15.3 |
55.0 |
28.0 |
73.2 |
49.5 |
40.0 |
10.5 |
59.1 |
21.9 |
36.7 |
14.7 |
30.0 |
7.2 |
45.0 |
25.0 |
55.5 |
45.0 |
60.0 |
38.4 |
33% |
26.1 |
5.1 |
32.0 |
3.7 |
30.4 |
4.0 |
20.0 |
5.6 |
16.0 |
7.7 |
25.0 |
8.2 |
20.0 |
10.4 |
20.6 |
12.0 |
17.0 |
3.4 |
10.0 |
5.4 |
12.7 |
2.6 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
6.5 |
5.0 |
33% |
5 |
392 |
-0.518 |
-13% |
16 |
67% |
101.0 |
23.8 |
76.0 |
33.9 |
70.0 |
21.9 |
59.1 |
32.1 |
75.0 |
51.3 |
50.0 |
20.5 |
65.0 |
27.8 |
41.0 |
19.0 |
45.0 |
17.8 |
52.0 |
32.0 |
67.9 |
57.4 |
70.0 |
48.4 |
67% |
32.0 |
12.1 |
36.0 |
12.6 |
40.0 |
13.1 |
25.0 |
10.4 |
20.0 |
9.7 |
30.0 |
12.5 |
24.7 |
15.2 |
22.3 |
13.8 |
22.0 |
7.8 |
15.0 |
8.8 |
18.0 |
5.1 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
10.0 |
8.6 |
67% |
10 |
437 |
-0.149 |
-1% |
17 |
NCDC
Climatology |
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NCDC Climatology |
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NCDC Climatology |
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Period
of Record (") |
100.6 |
83% |
62.4 |
67% |
66.5 |
72% |
61.0 |
44% |
74.4 |
32% |
41.7 |
71% |
63.4 |
59% |
35.0 |
63% |
25.5 |
107% |
47.7 |
42% |
61.0 |
17% |
78.9 |
27% |
Period of Record (") |
27.7 |
116% |
31.8 |
114% |
34.2 |
111% |
20.4 |
133% |
15.9 |
162% |
27.5 |
132% |
21.2 |
166% |
22.7 |
151% |
17.1 |
130% |
14.4 |
131% |
13.7 |
110% |
7.9 |
64% |
7.6 |
19% |
Period of Record (") |
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AVG FCST
/ Climo |
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AVG FCST / Climo |
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AVG FCST / Climo |
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Avg FCST
(PCT Climo) |
95% |
13% |
122% |
54% |
99% |
27% |
100% |
56% |
100% |
69% |
110% |
39% |
98% |
40% |
111% |
48% |
145% |
38% |
100% |
58% |
100% |
83% |
84% |
57% |
Avg FCST (PCT Climo) |
110% |
-6% |
120% |
6% |
108% |
-3% |
128% |
-5% |
120% |
-42% |
107% |
-26% |
108% |
-58% |
102% |
-49% |
114% |
-16% |
101% |
-30% |
113% |
3% |
129% |
65% |
126% |
107% |
Avg FCST (PCT Climo) |
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Median
FCST (PCT Climo) |
97% |
14% |
116% |
49% |
98% |
25% |
93% |
49% |
101% |
69% |
101% |
30% |
95% |
37% |
110% |
47% |
134% |
28% |
95% |
53% |
98% |
81% |
81% |
54% |
Median FCST (PCT
Climo) |
104% |
-12% |
110% |
-4% |
102% |
-9% |
111% |
-23% |
113% |
-49% |
102% |
-31% |
104% |
-61% |
97% |
-54% |
110% |
-20% |
93% |
-38% |
109% |
-1% |
121% |
57% |
113% |
93% |
Median FCST (PCT Climo) |
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