Forecaster |
CAR |
80.9 |
BGR |
125.1 |
PWM |
72.6 |
CON |
82.3 |
BTV |
127.2 |
BOS |
80.1 |
ORH |
88.0 |
PVD |
53.1 |
BDR |
62.2 |
BDL |
87.8 |
ALB |
85.0 |
BGM |
114.2 |
Forecaster |
NYC |
61.9 |
ABE |
37.5 |
MDT |
24.9 |
PHL |
44.1 |
ACY |
38.1 |
EWR |
68.2 |
BWI |
14.5 |
IAD |
12.6 |
DCA |
10.1 |
SBY |
14 |
RIC |
10.9 |
ORF |
21.80 |
RDU |
9.05 |
Forecaster |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV over
PORN |
AVG Error |
Roger Smith |
120.0 |
39.1 |
75.0 |
50.1 |
66.0 |
6.6 |
82.0 |
0.3 |
145.0 |
17.8 |
62.0 |
18.1 |
70.5 |
17.5 |
66.0 |
12.9 |
45.0 |
17.2 |
55.0 |
32.8 |
88.0 |
3.0 |
100.0 |
14.2 |
Roger Smith |
30.0 |
31.9 |
45.0 |
7.5 |
22.0 |
2.9 |
38.0 |
6.1 |
17.0 |
21.1 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
40.0 |
25.6 |
20.0 |
7.4 |
16.0 |
5.9 |
12.0 |
2.0 |
14.0 |
3.2 |
8.0 |
13.8 |
8.0 |
1.1 |
Roger Smith |
1 |
401.1 |
-2.046 |
31.4% |
16.0 |
Mitchel Volk |
125.0 |
44.1 |
88.0 |
37.1 |
68.0 |
4.6 |
88.0 |
5.7 |
102.0 |
25.2 |
41.0 |
39.1 |
55.0 |
33.0 |
33.0 |
20.1 |
30.0 |
32.2 |
40.0 |
47.8 |
70.0 |
15.0 |
60.0 |
54.2 |
Mitchel Volk |
22.0 |
39.9 |
30.0 |
7.5 |
30.0 |
5.1 |
20.0 |
24.1 |
20.0 |
18.1 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
18.0 |
3.6 |
18.0 |
5.4 |
16.0 |
5.9 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
8.0 |
2.9 |
7.0 |
14.8 |
10.0 |
0.9 |
Mitchel Volk |
2 |
535.4 |
-0.476 |
8.4% |
21.4 |
iralibov |
108.0 |
27.1 |
87.0 |
38.1 |
67.0 |
5.6 |
61.0 |
21.3 |
75.0 |
52.2 |
40.3 |
39.8 |
47.0 |
41.0 |
33.0 |
20.1 |
24.0 |
38.2 |
46.0 |
41.8 |
62.0 |
23.0 |
66.0 |
48.2 |
iralibov |
29.1 |
32.8 |
23.0 |
14.5 |
20.0 |
4.9 |
21.0 |
23.1 |
18.0 |
20.1 |
28.0 |
40.2 |
23.0 |
8.6 |
18.2 |
5.6 |
17.6 |
7.5 |
11.5 |
2.5 |
15.6 |
4.8 |
12.5 |
9.3 |
10.2 |
1.2 |
iralibov |
3 |
571.3 |
-0.056 |
2.3% |
22.9 |
TQ |
148.0 |
67.1 |
89.0 |
36.1 |
95.0 |
22.4 |
96.0 |
13.7 |
113.0 |
14.2 |
52.0 |
28.1 |
69.0 |
19.0 |
25.0 |
28.1 |
20.0 |
42.2 |
47.0 |
40.8 |
57.0 |
28.0 |
72.0 |
42.2 |
TQ |
20.0 |
41.9 |
23.0 |
14.5 |
24.0 |
0.9 |
13.0 |
31.1 |
12.0 |
26.1 |
20.0 |
48.2 |
15.0 |
0.6 |
14.0 |
1.4 |
11.0 |
0.9 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
13.0 |
2.2 |
5.0 |
16.8 |
5.0 |
4.1 |
TQ |
4 |
577.4 |
0.015 |
1.2% |
23.1 |
PORN |
90.2 |
9.3 |
50.6 |
74.5 |
64.1 |
8.5 |
58.6 |
23.7 |
69.1 |
58.1 |
41.2 |
38.9 |
61.9 |
26.1 |
34.4 |
18.7 |
25.4 |
36.8 |
46.4 |
41.4 |
56.7 |
28.3 |
71.8 |
42.4 |
PORN |
27.1 |
34.8 |
30.7 |
6.8 |
31.8 |
6.9 |
20.2 |
23.9 |
15.8 |
22.3 |
27.1 |
41.1 |
20.2 |
5.8 |
21.7 |
9.1 |
16.1 |
6.0 |
10.7 |
3.3 |
13.3 |
2.5 |
7.9 |
13.9 |
7.5 |
1.6 |
PORN |
5 |
584.5 |
0.098 |
0.0% |
23.4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
95.0 |
14.1 |
65.0 |
60.1 |
55.0 |
17.6 |
53.0 |
29.3 |
95.0 |
32.2 |
37.0 |
43.1 |
48.0 |
40.0 |
30.0 |
23.1 |
24.0 |
38.2 |
29.0 |
58.8 |
32.0 |
53.0 |
85.0 |
29.2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
25.0 |
36.9 |
30.0 |
7.5 |
30.0 |
5.1 |
19.0 |
25.1 |
15.0 |
23.1 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
18.0 |
3.6 |
18.0 |
5.4 |
20.0 |
9.9 |
15.0 |
1.0 |
15.0 |
4.2 |
11.0 |
10.8 |
10.0 |
0.9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
6 |
615.3 |
0.458 |
-5.3% |
24.6 |
Shillelagh |
96.0 |
15.1 |
67.0 |
58.1 |
57.0 |
15.6 |
54.0 |
28.3 |
66.0 |
61.2 |
34.0 |
46.1 |
52.0 |
36.0 |
24.0 |
29.1 |
26.0 |
36.2 |
38.0 |
49.8 |
51.0 |
34.0 |
85.0 |
29.2 |
Shillelagh |
23.0 |
38.9 |
25.0 |
12.5 |
27.0 |
2.1 |
17.0 |
27.1 |
12.0 |
26.1 |
23.0 |
45.2 |
14.0 |
0.4 |
15.0 |
2.4 |
9.0 |
1.1 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
16.8 |
4.0 |
5.1 |
Shillelagh |
7 |
626.2 |
0.585 |
-7.1% |
25.0 |
donsutherland1 |
123.5 |
42.6 |
75.6 |
49.5 |
51.5 |
21.1 |
43.0 |
39.3 |
72.4 |
54.8 |
33.5 |
46.6 |
64.3 |
23.7 |
29.5 |
23.6 |
16.5 |
45.7 |
48.5 |
39.3 |
50.1 |
34.9 |
75.1 |
39.1 |
donsutherland1 |
13.9 |
48.0 |
23.1 |
14.4 |
20.4 |
4.5 |
15.2 |
28.9 |
9.5 |
28.6 |
14.0 |
54.2 |
18.5 |
4.1 |
21.0 |
8.4 |
12.9 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
11.7 |
3.9 |
7.0 |
2.5 |
19.3 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
donsutherland1 |
8 |
697.8 |
1.422 |
-19.4% |
27.9 |
FCST Statistics |
CAR |
Err |
BGR |
Err |
PWM |
Err |
CON |
Err |
BTV |
Err |
BOS |
Err |
ORH |
Err |
PVD |
Err |
BDR |
Err |
BDL |
Err |
ALB |
Err |
BGM |
Err |
FCST Statistics |
NYC |
Err |
ABE |
Err |
MDT |
Err |
PHL |
Err |
ACY |
Err |
EWR |
Err |
BWI |
Err |
IAD |
Err |
DCA |
Err |
SBY |
Err |
RIC |
Err |
ORF |
Err |
RDU |
Err |
FCST Statistics |
Rank
|
Error |
Z |
%MPRV |
|
MIN |
90.2 |
9.3 |
50.6 |
36.1 |
51.5 |
4.6 |
43.0 |
0.3 |
66.0 |
14.2 |
33.5 |
18.10 |
47.0 |
17.50 |
24.0 |
12.9 |
16.5 |
17.2 |
29.0 |
32.8 |
32.0 |
3.0 |
60.0 |
14.2 |
MIN |
13.9 |
31.90 |
23.0 |
6.8 |
20.0 |
0.9 |
13.0 |
6.1 |
9.5 |
18.05 |
14.0 |
40.20 |
14.0 |
0.4 |
14.0 |
1.4 |
9.0 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
9.3 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
MIN |
1 |
401.1 |
-2.046 |
-19.4% |
16 |
MAX |
148.0 |
67.1 |
89.0 |
74.5 |
95.0 |
22.4 |
96.0 |
39.3 |
145.0 |
61.2 |
62.0 |
46.6 |
70.5 |
41.0 |
66.0 |
29.1 |
45.0 |
45.7 |
55.0 |
58.8 |
88.0 |
53.0 |
100.0 |
54.2 |
MAX |
30.0 |
48.0 |
45.0 |
14.5 |
31.8 |
6.9 |
38.0 |
31.1 |
20.0 |
28.6 |
28.0 |
54.2 |
40.0 |
25.6 |
21.7 |
9.1 |
20.0 |
9.9 |
15.0 |
11.7 |
15.6 |
7.0 |
12.5 |
19.3 |
10.2 |
5.9 |
MAX |
8 |
697.8 |
1.422 |
31.4% |
28 |
AVG |
113.2 |
32.3 |
74.7 |
50.5 |
65.5 |
12.8 |
67.0 |
20.2 |
92.2 |
39.5 |
42.6 |
37.5 |
58.5 |
29.5 |
34.4 |
22.0 |
26.4 |
35.8 |
43.7 |
44.1 |
58.4 |
27.4 |
76.9 |
37.3 |
AVG |
23.8 |
38.1 |
28.7 |
10.7 |
25.7 |
4.1 |
20.4 |
23.6 |
14.9 |
23.1 |
23.4 |
44.8 |
20.8 |
6.5 |
18.2 |
5.6 |
14.8 |
5.0 |
9.2 |
5.1 |
11.4 |
3.7 |
7.4 |
14.4 |
7.2 |
2.6 |
AVG |
5 |
576.1 |
0.000 |
1.4% |
23 |
Median |
114.0 |
33.1 |
75.3 |
49.8 |
65.1 |
12.1 |
59.8 |
22.5 |
85.0 |
42.2 |
40.7 |
39.5 |
58.5 |
29.6 |
31.5 |
21.6 |
24.7 |
37.5 |
46.2 |
41.6 |
56.9 |
28.2 |
73.6 |
40.7 |
Median |
24.0 |
37.9 |
27.5 |
10.0 |
25.5 |
4.7 |
19.5 |
24.6 |
15.4 |
22.7 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
18.3 |
3.8 |
18.1 |
5.5 |
16.0 |
5.9 |
9.4 |
4.7 |
13.2 |
3.0 |
7.5 |
14.4 |
7.8 |
1.4 |
Median |
5 |
580.9 |
0.056 |
0.6% |
23 |
Mode |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
33.0 |
20.1 |
24.0 |
38.2 |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
#N/A |
85.0 |
29.2 |
Mode |
#N/A |
#N/A |
30.0 |
7.5 |
30.0 |
5.1 |
#N/A |
#N/A |
12.0 |
26.1 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
18.0 |
3.6 |
18.0 |
5.4 |
16.0 |
5.9 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
16.8 |
10.0 |
0.9 |
Mode |
|
|
|
|
|
STD |
19.6 |
19.6 |
13.5 |
13.5 |
13.4 |
7.2 |
19.1 |
13.0 |
27.3 |
19.2 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.2 |
9.2 |
13.3 |
5.2 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
16.3 |
14.8 |
12.7 |
12.7 |
STD |
5.3 |
5.3 |
7.4 |
3.6 |
4.7 |
1.9 |
7.6 |
7.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
1.6 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
STD |
2 |
85.6 |
1.000 |
14.6% |
3.422 |
33% |
100.0 |
19.1 |
69.7 |
41.9 |
59.4 |
7.2 |
55.5 |
16.2 |
73.3 |
27.5 |
38.1 |
39.0 |
53.0 |
24.5 |
29.7 |
20.1 |
24.0 |
36.4 |
42.0 |
41.0 |
52.9 |
24.7 |
71.9 |
32.5 |
33% |
22.3 |
35.5 |
23.7 |
7.5 |
22.7 |
3.4 |
17.7 |
23.9 |
13.0 |
21.4 |
23.7 |
43.2 |
18.0 |
3.6 |
18.0 |
5.4 |
13.9 |
3.8 |
7.3 |
2.8 |
9.7 |
2.9 |
5.7 |
13.8 |
5.8 |
1.1 |
33% |
3 |
573.3 |
-0.033 |
-3.5% |
22.9 |
67% |
122.3 |
41.4 |
83.2 |
55.4 |
66.7 |
16.9 |
75.0 |
26.8 |
99.7 |
53.9 |
41.1 |
42.0 |
63.5 |
35.0 |
33.0 |
23.4 |
25.8 |
38.2 |
46.8 |
45.8 |
60.3 |
32.1 |
81.7 |
42.3 |
67% |
26.4 |
39.6 |
30.0 |
13.8 |
29.0 |
5.0 |
20.1 |
26.4 |
16.6 |
25.1 |
25.0 |
44.5 |
19.6 |
5.2 |
19.4 |
6.8 |
16.1 |
6.0 |
11.2 |
6.7 |
13.8 |
3.8 |
8.0 |
16.1 |
9.3 |
3.2 |
67% |
6 |
605.0 |
0.338 |
1.9% |
24.2 |
NCDC
Climatology |
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NCDC Climatology |
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NCDC Climatology |
|
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|
Period
of Record (") |
100.6 |
80% |
62.4 |
200% |
66.5 |
109% |
61.0 |
135% |
74.4 |
171% |
41.7 |
192% |
63.4 |
139% |
35.0 |
152% |
25.5 |
244% |
47.7 |
184% |
61.0 |
139% |
78.9 |
145% |
Period of Record (") |
27.7 |
223% |
31.8 |
118% |
34.2 |
73% |
20.4 |
216% |
15.9 |
239% |
27.5 |
248% |
21.2 |
68% |
22.7 |
56% |
17.1 |
59% |
14.4 |
97% |
13.7 |
79% |
7.9 |
276% |
7.6 |
119% |
Period of Record (") |
|
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AVG
FCST / Climo |
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AVG FCST / Climo |
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AVG FCST / Climo |
|
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|
Avg
FCST (PCT Climo) |
113% |
32% |
120% |
-81% |
98% |
-11% |
110% |
-25% |
124% |
-47% |
102% |
-90% |
92% |
-47% |
98% |
-54% |
103% |
-141% |
92% |
-92% |
96% |
-44% |
97% |
-47% |
Avg FCST (PCT Climo) |
86% |
-138% |
90% |
-28% |
75% |
2% |
100% |
-116% |
94% |
-146% |
85% |
-163% |
98% |
30% |
80% |
25% |
87% |
28% |
64% |
-33% |
83% |
4% |
93% |
-183% |
95% |
-24% |
Avg FCST (PCT Climo) |
|
|
|
|
|
Median
FCST (PCT Climo) |
113% |
33% |
121% |
-80% |
98% |
-11% |
98% |
-37% |
114% |
-57% |
97% |
-95% |
92% |
-47% |
90% |
-62% |
97% |
-147% |
97% |
-87% |
93% |
-46% |
93% |
-52% |
Median FCST
(PCT Climo) |
87% |
-137% |
86% |
-31% |
75% |
2% |
96% |
-120% |
97% |
-142% |
91% |
-157% |
86% |
18% |
80% |
24% |
94% |
35% |
65% |
-32% |
96% |
17% |
94% |
-182% |
102% |
-17% |
Median FCST (PCT Climo) |
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