All Forecasters:
1st Place:
TQ (TAE = 209”)
Second: Raven (TAE =
239.4”)
Third: Donald
Rosenfeld (TAE = 247.4”)
Honorable Mention:
JSD (TAE = 257.1”)
19th:
PORN (TAE = 294”)
Average TAE = 310.7”
Rookie Class:
1st Place:
JSD (TAE = 257.1”)
Second: JPG4 (TAE =
288.7”)
Third: mxc10160 (TAE
= 317.1”)
Honorable Mention:
weatherT (TAE = 331.6”)
A notable season with an above-normal snowfall total…a
second straight year of above normal snowfall over the
Northeast in general…with a shift in the action center onto
southern New England in particular.
Eleven of 25 (44%)
forecast stations exceeded their ‘period of record’ normal
(PORN) snowfall. The top-3
season-totals were measured
@ Bridgeport (BDR)…Bangor (BGR)…and Boston (BOS)…where
snowfalls were at least 60% more than PORN.
Normal to near-normal snows were observed over a few
stations in the snow-starved mid-Atlantic south
@ Newark (EWR)…Philly (PHL)…and Raleigh-Durham (RDU). Same-old…same-old elsewhere. The biggest losers
were along and either side of the Mason-Dixon line and the
8% of PORN @ Norfolk (ORF).
Skillful long-range forecasts beat PORN.
Perfect forecasts:
PORN @ EWR (27.1”)
Season-total snowfall:
PORN: 916.9”
OBSERVED (25 stations):
1010.2”
Observed…as % PORN:
110.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Complete station-by-station verification table @
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_10/season_total/Season_totals
0809.html
Thanks to everyone who entered. Hope to see all of you again next winter.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Absolute Error is the primary measure of
forecaster skill. It/s the sum of the
absolute error at each station.
The Forecaster with the smallest sum-total absolute error
made the best forecast.
Error Z is the forecast error/s distance from
the average forecast error (310.7”)…expressed as the number of
standard deviations above (+) or below (-) the average.
%MPRV over PORN measures the forecast’s
‘percent improvement over the ‘period of record normal’.
Forecasts with positive percentages were more skillful than PORN.
AVG Error is the average station error (Total
Absolute Error divided by the number of forecast stations (25)).
Secondary skill measures:
Season Total Snowfall: Sum-total snowfall (STP) forecast for all 25
stations without regard to distribution.
% PORN: forecast STP/s
percentage of ‘period of record’ normal snowfall.
Total Error:
absolute difference between Observed and Forecast snowfall.
AVG Error:
average station error (STP divided by the number of forecast stations
(25)).
Blue (red) cells indicate values in the upper (lower) 33%
percentile.
Ó denotes winner of
last year/s contest
|
® = Rookie
|
Total
Absolute
|
|
Forecaster
|
Rank
|
Error
|
Error Z
|
%MPRV over PORN
|
AVG Error
|
|
TQ
|
1
|
209.0
|
-1.204
|
28.9%
|
8.4
|
|
Raven
|
2
|
239.4
|
-0.884
|
18.6%
|
9.6
|
|
CONSENSUS
|
3
|
246.1
|
-0.814
|
16.3%
|
9.8
|
|
Donald Rosenfeld
|
4
|
247.4
|
-0.800
|
15.9%
|
9.9
|
|
JSD®
|
5
|
257.1
|
-0.698
|
12.6%
|
10.3
|
|
jackzig
|
6
|
258.0
|
-0.689
|
12.2%
|
10.3
|
|
duxpond©
|
7
|
260.3
|
-0.665
|
11.5%
|
10.4
|
|
dmcguriman
|
8
|
261.7
|
-0.650
|
11.0%
|
10.5
|
|
Don Rooney
|
9
|
262.7
|
-0.639
|
10.6%
|
10.5
|
|
donsutherland1
|
10
|
265.3
|
-0.612
|
9.8%
|
10.6
|
|
WintersGrasp
|
11
|
274.1
|
-0.519
|
6.8%
|
11.0
|
|
herb@maws
|
12
|
277.7
|
-0.482
|
5.5%
|
11.1
|
|
The_General_GSB
|
13
|
281.6
|
-0.441
|
4.2%
|
11.3
|
|
bubbler86
|
14
|
281.8
|
-0.438
|
4.2%
|
11.3
|
|
Newa
|
15
|
283.1
|
-0.425
|
3.7%
|
11.3
|
|
Mitchel Volk
|
16
|
284.1
|
-0.414
|
3.4%
|
11.4
|
|
JPG4®
|
17
|
288.7
|
-0.366
|
1.8%
|
11.5
|
|
apisces1
|
18
|
288.8
|
-0.365
|
1.8%
|
11.6
|
|
PORN
|
19
|
294.0
|
-0.310
|
0.0%
|
11.8
|
|
NYNJPAWeather
|
20
|
315.5
|
-0.084
|
-7.3%
|
12.6
|
|
mxc10160®
|
21
|
317.1
|
-0.067
|
-7.9%
|
12.7
|
|
garymcm
|
22
|
319.8
|
-0.039
|
-8.8%
|
12.8
|
|
TheSnowman
|
23
|
325.9
|
0.025
|
-10.9%
|
13.0
|
|
FrankVito
|
24
|
330.5
|
0.074
|
-12.4%
|
13.2
|
|
weatherT®
|
25
|
331.6
|
0.085
|
-12.8%
|
13.3
|
|
ilibov
|
26
|
368.5
|
0.473
|
-25.3%
|
14.7
|
|
edhoffman
|
27
|
390.3
|
0.703
|
-32.8%
|
15.6
|
|
bruced39
|
28
|
443.9
|
1.266
|
-51.0%
|
17.8
|
|
weathermat®
|
29
|
493.2
|
1.785
|
-67.8%
|
19.7
|
|
gateway2capecod®
|
30
|
499.6
|
1.852
|
-69.9%
|
20.0
|
|
CindyBlair®
|
31
|
568.1
|
2.573
|
-93.2%
|
22.7
|
|
answered7
|
32
|
586.8
|
2.769
|
-99.6%
|
23.5
|
|
FCST
Statistics
|
Rank
|
Error
|
Z
|
%MPRV
|
|
|
MIN
|
1
|
209.0
|
-1.204
|
-99.6%
|
8
|
|
MAX
|
32
|
586.8
|
2.769
|
28.9%
|
23
|
|
AVG
|
17
|
323.4
|
0.000
|
-10.0%
|
13
|
|
Median
|
17
|
286.4
|
-0.390
|
2.6%
|
11
|
|
Mode
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
STD
|
9
|
95.1
|
1.000
|
32.3%
|
3.803
|
|
33%
|
11
|
275.2
|
-0.507
|
-8.5%
|
11.0
|
|
67%
|
22
|
318.9
|
-0.048
|
6.4%
|
12.8
|
|
|
® = Rookie
|
Season
Total Snowfall
|
|
Forecaster
|
1010.2
|
% Climo
|
Total
Error
|
Average
Error
|
Rank
|
|
duxpond©
|
1009
|
110.0%
|
1.1
|
0.0
|
1
|
|
Newa
|
1014
|
110.6%
|
3.9
|
0.2
|
2
|
|
weatherT®
|
1006
|
109.7%
|
4.1
|
0.2
|
3
|
|
Raven
|
1018
|
111.0%
|
7.9
|
0.3
|
4
|
|
Donald Rosenfeld
|
1043
|
113.7%
|
32.4
|
1.3
|
5
|
|
TQ
|
1046
|
114.1%
|
35.9
|
1.5
|
6
|
|
bubbler86
|
1058
|
115.4%
|
47.9
|
2.0
|
7
|
|
The_General_GSB
|
960
|
104.7%
|
50.6
|
2.1
|
8
|
|
CindyBlair®
|
1070
|
116.7%
|
59.9
|
2.5
|
9
|
|
NYNJPAWeather
|
1088
|
118.7%
|
77.9
|
3.2
|
10
|
|
CONSENSUS
|
1090
|
118.9%
|
80.0
|
3.3
|
11
|
|
herb@maws
|
1091
|
119.0%
|
80.9
|
3.4
|
12
|
|
mxc10160®
|
925
|
100.9%
|
85.1
|
3.5
|
13
|
|
PORN
|
917
|
100.0%
|
93.2
|
3.9
|
14
|
|
Mitchel Volk
|
913
|
99.6%
|
97.1
|
4.0
|
15
|
|
garymcm
|
911
|
99.4%
|
99.1
|
4.1
|
16
|
|
WintersGrasp
|
1119
|
122.0%
|
108.9
|
4.5
|
17
|
|
donsutherland1
|
1121
|
122.3%
|
111.2
|
4.6
|
18
|
|
Don Rooney
|
1121
|
122.3%
|
111.3
|
4.6
|
19
|
|
JSD®
|
1127
|
122.9%
|
116.9
|
4.9
|
20
|
|
jackzig
|
1130
|
123.2%
|
119.9
|
5.0
|
21
|
|
ilibov
|
1143
|
124.6%
|
132.5
|
5.5
|
22
|
|
dmcguriman
|
1150
|
125.4%
|
139.9
|
5.8
|
23
|
|
edhoffman
|
837
|
91.3%
|
173.2
|
7.2
|
24
|
|
JPG4®
|
1186
|
129.3%
|
175.9
|
7.3
|
25
|
|
apisces1
|
833
|
90.8%
|
177.2
|
7.4
|
26
|
|
gateway2capecod®
|
1208
|
131.7%
|
197.9
|
8.2
|
27
|
|
FrankVito
|
1209
|
131.9%
|
198.9
|
8.3
|
28
|
|
TheSnowman
|
1213
|
132.3%
|
202.9
|
8.5
|
29
|
|
bruced39
|
1247
|
136.0%
|
236.9
|
9.9
|
30
|
|
weathermat®
|
665
|
72.5%
|
345.2
|
14.4
|
31
|
|
answered7
|
1597
|
174.2%
|
586.8
|
24.4
|
32
|
|
FCST Statistics
|
TOT
|
%Climo
|
Error
|
AAE
|
Rank
|
|
MIN
|
665
|
72.5%
|
1.1
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
|
MAX
|
1597
|
174.2%
|
586.8
|
24.4
|
32.0
|
|
AVG
|
1065
|
116.1%
|
124.7
|
5.2
|
16.5
|
|
Median
|
1079
|
117.7%
|
104.0
|
4.3
|
16.5
|
|
Mode
|
#N/A
|
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
|
STD
|
161
|
17.6%
|
113.7
|
4.7
|
9.4
|
|
33%
|
1015
|
110.7%
|
80.2
|
3.3
|
11.3
|
|
67%
|
1121
|
122.3%
|
128.3
|
5.3
|
21.7
|
|
Batting Average (Bat AVG) divides the
number of stations where the forecaster had the lowest absolute
station error by the total number of forecast stations (25).
|
Rank
|
Forecaster
|
Lowest
Station Error
|
Count
|
Bat AVG
|
|
1
|
duxpond©
|
BGR ACY RDU
|
3
|
0.120
|
|
1
|
garymcm
|
BGM MDT ORF
|
3
|
0.120
|
|
1
|
jackzig
|
BOS IAD DCA
|
3
|
0.120
|
|
1
|
TQ
|
CON ORH ABE
|
3
|
0.120
|
|
5
|
apisces1
|
NYC SBY
|
2
|
0.080
|
|
5
|
dmcguriman
|
PWM ACY
|
2
|
0.080
|
|
5
|
PORN
|
BDL EWR
|
2
|
0.080
|
|
5
|
Raven
|
CAR PHL
|
2
|
0.080
|
|
5
|
weatherT®
|
BTV ABE
|
2
|
0.080
|
|
10
|
bubbler86
|
RIC
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
Donald Rosenfeld
|
BGM
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
FrankVito
|
BDR
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
herb@maws
|
RDU
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
JPG4®
|
PVD
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
JSD®
|
ALB
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
Newa
|
PHL
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
NYNJPAWeather
|
BDR
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
10
|
weathermat®
|
BWI
|
1
|
0.040
|
|
19
|
answered7
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
bruced39
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
CindyBlair®
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
CONSENSUS
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
Don Rooney
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
donsutherland1
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
edhoffman
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
gateway2capecod®
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
ilibov
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
Mitchel Volk
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
mxc10160®
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
The_General_GSB
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
TheSnowman
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
19
|
WintersGrasp
|
|
0
|
0.000
|
|
Station
|
Climo
|
Observed
|
Depart
|
Obs
/ Climo
|
|
BDR
|
25.0
|
43.1
|
18.1
|
172.4%
|
|
BGR
|
50.6
|
85.5
|
34.9
|
169.0%
|
|
BOS
|
41.0
|
65.9
|
24.9
|
160.7%
|
|
CON
|
57.7
|
88.2
|
30.5
|
152.9%
|
|
PVD
|
34.1
|
51.0
|
16.9
|
149.6%
|
|
PWM
|
63.6
|
80.9
|
17.3
|
127.2%
|
|
BTV
|
68.6
|
86.9
|
18.3
|
126.7%
|
|
ORH
|
61.5
|
76.9
|
15.4
|
125.0%
|
|
CAR
|
89.2
|
104.2
|
15.0
|
116.8%
|
|
PHL
|
20.0
|
21.8
|
1.8
|
109.0%
|
|
NYC
|
27.1
|
27.6
|
0.5
|
101.8%
|
|
EWR
|
27.1
|
27.1
|
0.0
|
100.0%
|
|
BDL
|
46.6
|
45.5
|
-1.1
|
97.6%
|
|
ACY
|
15.5
|
14.3
|
-1.2
|
92.3%
|
|
ALB
|
57.0
|
52.1
|
-4.9
|
91.4%
|
|
RDU
|
7.5
|
6.8
|
-0.8
|
90.0%
|
|
BGM
|
72.1
|
56.9
|
-15.2
|
78.9%
|
|
ABE
|
30.8
|
23.8
|
-7.0
|
77.3%
|
|
SBY
|
10.7
|
5.6
|
-5.2
|
51.9%
|
|
RIC
|
13.2
|
6.7
|
-6.5
|
50.8%
|
|
DCA
|
16.3
|
7.6
|
-8.8
|
46.3%
|
|
BWI
|
20.3
|
9.1
|
-11.2
|
44.8%
|
|
MDT
|
32.1
|
14.1
|
-18.0
|
43.9%
|
|
IAD
|
21.4
|
8.1
|
-13.3
|
37.9%
|
|
ORF
|
7.9
|
0.6
|
-7.3
|
7.6%
|
|
TOT
|
916.9
|
1010.2
|
93.3
|
110.2%
|
|