NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Enter
Season-total
Forecast

Storm-total Contest

Verified Forecasts

Contest #1
Contest # 2
Contest # 3
Contest # 4
Contest # 5
Contest # 6
Contest # 7
Contest # 8
Contest # 9

Storm Summary

Contest #1
Contest # 2
Contest # 3
Contest # 4
Contest # 5
Contest # 6
Contest # 7
Contest # 8
Contest # 9

Season-total Contest

Forecasts

15th Annual
NE.Wx
Snowfall Forecast Contest
Winter '13 / '14

The longest continuously held
snowfall forecasting contest
on the World Wide Web.

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15th Annual
'Storm-total'
Snowfall Forecast Contest

Interim Standings
as of Storm #8 here

- Forecaster Storm Summary data here

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13th Annual
'Season-total'
Snowfall Forecast Contest

Forecast Verification
and Final Results
Top Forecasters
1st - WXCHEMIST
2nd - Herb@MAWS
3rd - snocat918
Honorable Mention - christophertingus

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Contest Announcements and Updates
NEWxSFC/s Web Log

Day One >= 4"
QPFHSD

Day Two >= 4"

Day Three >= 4"

NOHRSC SN Analysis

NESDIS

NOAM SN depth - USAF

NHEMI SN depth - USAF

Today/s Snow cover

**'13 / '14 'Storm-total' Contest**
Storm	1st	2nd	3rd	HM
14-DEC	Herb@MAWS	TQ	donsutherland	kevinmyatt
03-JAN	donsutherland	Herb@MAWS	weatherT	Brad Yehl
21-JAN	Brad Yehl	donsutherland	emoran	Herb@MAWS
05-MAR	donsutherland	Brad Yehl	TQ	Herb@MAWS
12-FEB	weatherT	Brad Yehl	snowman	donsutherland
03-MAR	Donald Rosenfeld	Mitchel Volk	Shillelagh	Brad Yehl
12-MAR	donsutherland	Brad Yehl	Roger Smith	TQ
17-MAR	donsutherland	TQ	Donald Rosenfeld	snocat918

Winter '12 / '13 Results

14th Annual 'Storm-total'
FINAL Standings
Top Forecaster
dryslot

12th Annual 'Season-total'
Forecast Verification
and Final Results
Top Forecaster
Donald Rosenfeld

Past Contest Winners


Arctic Oscillation


Northern Annular Modes


Pacific North American

NCDC Period-of-Record
Snowfall Climatology

References

Be notified of a
Call for Forecasts

Updated: 06-APR-14 @ 7:30 PM EDT

ME	NH	VT	MA	RI	CT	NY	PA	NJ	MD	VA	NC
CAR Caribou	CON Concord	BTV Burlington	BOS Boston	PVD Providence	BDR Bridgeport	ALB Albany	ABE Allentown	ACY Atlantic City	BWI Baltimore	IAD Dulles	RDU Raleigh
BGR Bangor			HYA Hyannis		BDL Hartford	BGM Binghamton	MDT Harrisburg	EWR Newark	DCA Washington	ORF Norfolk
PWM Portland			ORH Worcester			ISP Islip	PHL Philly		SBY Salisbury	RIC Richmond
						JFK Kennedy AP

**Snowfall Forecast Contest** **Rules**

Forecast Stations	There are 27 permanent forecast stations for each snow storm. Forecast station locations range from Raleigh...NC (RDU) to Caribou...ME (CAR) and Binghamton (BGM) to Hyannis (HYA). Here/s a map showing their locations (courtesy Steve Okonski). The 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast contest station list has 25 stations and is slightly different than the 'Snow Storm' station list.

Who Can Enter ?	Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; all other weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers... and any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras... registered Nostradamusts...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents...pest detectives...NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather...including self-imposed exiles from Eastern and of course...actual meteorologists. In honor of Mr. Joseph Bartlo/s final request (RIP): trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Entries	Enter your 'snow storm' snowfall forecasts here. Enter your 'season-total' snowfall forecasts here. If you/re a first-time forecaster...you can create an account if you can come up with a user name and password. Your NEWxSFC account is password protected. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies. After you submit your forecast...a copy of it will be e-mailed to you unless COMCAST flags it as SPAM. All raw 'storm' forecasts will be posted automatically to the NEWxSFC web log ~30 minutes after the entry deadline has passed. The 'Call for forecasts' are made on the NEWxSFC web log by the Contest Administrator ~24 hours in advance of the deadline. In most cases...the deadline will be 10:30 PM LST. The Contest Administrator reserves the right to reject any forecast if it could compromise the validity or integrity of the contest.

Forecast Snowfall Amounts	MIN value: 0" MAX value: 99" MAX decimal places: 2 If 'trace' snowfall is expected at a forecast station...please enter 0.05".

Verification	Forecasts are verified against each station/s storm-total snowfall (STP) ...as reported by NWS Preliminary Local Climatological Bulletins (CF6). In the event a CF6 is not available or appears to contain errors...the following sources...listed in order of preference...will be used: CDUS41...PNS...or METAR. STP reports are posted to the NEWxSFC web log prior to forecast verification. The reports are considered preliminary and subject to change / challenge for 24 hours...if updated information becomes available.

Scoring	The scoring system for the 'regular' season is designed to determine objectively which forecast had the best overall synoptic quality. An accurate...high-quality... synoptic-scale snowfall forecast is defined as one capturing the magnitude and distribution of the storm/s total snowfall. Forecast quality is evaluated by calculating its 'goodness of fit' between all forecast and observed snowfall amounts. The scatter plot/s black diamonds show the forecast snowfall (x-axis) plotted against the observed snowfall (y-axis). The dashed line represents the forecast/s 'goodness of fit.' The magenta points represent a perfect forecast...where each station forecast matched each station observation. The 0.82 R² value indicates the forecaster accounted for 82% of the variability between forecast and observed snowfall amounts. A 'perfect' forecast would have an R² value of 1...meaning 100% of the observed snowfall/s variability was accounted for by the forecast. The forecast error statistic is the Sum of Squared Errors (SUMSQ). The arithmetic difference between the Forecast and Observed snowfall at each station is squared and the squared errors for all stations are summed. This skill measure rewards (penalizes) station forecasts with small (large) errors. The smaller the SUMSQ...the better the synoptic-scale forecast. If the absolute difference between your Forecast snowfall and the Observed snowfall is: one (1) inch = one (1) error point two (2) inches = four (4) error points three (3) inches = nine (9) error points Each forecaster/s SUMSQ Error score is normalized to a Z-Score for use in calculating Interim and End-of-Season standings. Forecasts with normalized Z-scores greater than or equal to 2.5 standard deviations above the mean are statistical outliers and may be excluded from the final Z-Score calculation. If Snow is Observed and Snow is Not Forecast... then the Forecaster/s Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... then the Observed Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is not Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... then the Forecaster is not scored for that station. Other reported forecast statistics...such as average absolute error (AAE) ...total absolute error (TAE)...total snowfall error (STP)...R²...and 'batting averages'...are 'measures of forecaster skill' but do not factor into forecast rankings.
Season-total Contest Scoring	The error statistic for the 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest is the sum-total of absolute errors. A forecast with the lowest 'sum-total of absolute errors' is the best forcast.
Results	Full forecast verification and summary results are posted on the Contest web page. Abbreviated results are posted to NEWxSFC/s web log

End-of-the-Season Final Standings	The Contest winner is determined by which Forecaster has the lowest average Sum of Square Error (SUMSQ) Z-Score at the end of the season. Forecasters must participate in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests to be eligible for ranking in the Final Standings. Forecasters...whom have participated in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests...will have Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts used to calculate the interim and final standings. The intent of this rule is to encourage forecasters to 'take on' difficult and/or late-season storms without fear of jeopardizing their score b/c of a 'bad' forecast.

Prizes	The top-ranked end-of-season 'Snow Storm' Forecaster and the top-ranked 'Season-total snowfall' Forecaster receives their choice of prizes.

Disputes	The contests are intended to be easy and fun to play. Disputes are not easy nor fun. Errors can and do happen. Please report them and a link to the supporting data here. Be sure to un-munge the mailto: address before you press 'Send.'
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