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20th Annual The longest continuously held -------------------------------------------------------------
20th
Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest Enter your forecast here Deadline: 10 PM EST ... xxx ... 10-xxx-19 Verification starts: 12:01 AM EST ... xxx ... xx-FEB-19 Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST ... xxx ... xx-FEB-19 ------------------------------------------------------------ Snow Storm #4: 12-FEB-19-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest Deadline for entries has passed Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19 -------------------------------------------------------------
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Winter '17 / '18 Results 19th Annual Top Forecaster Top Forecaster Past Contest Winners |
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Updated: 15-FEB-19 @ 10 AM EST |
Forecast Station List by State
(linked to verifying CF6)
ME |
NH |
VT |
MA |
RI |
CT |
NY |
PA |
NJ |
MD |
VA |
NC |
CAR |
CON |
BTV |
BOS |
PVD Providence |
BDR |
ALB |
ABE |
ACY |
BWI |
IAD |
RDU |
BGR |
HYA Hyannis |
BDL Hartford |
BGM Binghamton |
MDT Harrisburg |
EWR Newark |
DCA Washington |
ORF Norfolk |
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PWM |
ORH Worcester |
ISP |
PHL |
SBY |
RIC |
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JFK |
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Forecast |
There are 27 permanent forecast
stations for each snow storm. Forecast station locations range from Raleigh ... NC (RDU) to Caribou ... ME (CAR) and Binghamton (BGM) to Hyannis (HYA). Here/s a map showing their approximate locations (courtesy Steve Okonski). The 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast contest station
list has 25 stations and is |
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Who |
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with
or without trained Seals; all other weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... and any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamusts ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents ... pest detectives ... NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern and of course ... actual meteorologists. In honor of Mr. Joseph Bartlo/s final request (RIP): trolls ... goats ... hat3-lsiters ... and psests need not apply. |
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Entries |
Enter your 'snow storm' snowfall
forecasts here. Enter your 'season-total' snowfall forecasts here. If you/re a first-time forecaster ... you can create an account if you can come up with a user name and password. Your NEWxSFC account is password protected. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies. After you submit your forecast ... a copy of it will be e-mailed to you unless COMCAST or your ISP flags it as SPAM (looking at you COMCAST). All raw 'storm' forecasts will be posted automatically to the NEWxSFC web log ~30 minutes after the entry deadline has passed. 'Call for Forecasts' are made on the NEWxSFC web log by the Contest Administrator ~24 hours in advance of the deadline. In most cases ... the deadline will be 10 PM LT. The Contest Administrator reserves the right to reject any forecast if it could compromise the validity or integrity of the contest. |
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Forecast |
MIN value: 0" MAX value: 99" MAX decimal places: 2 If 'trace' snowfall is expected at a forecast station ... please enter 0.05". |
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Verification |
Forecasts are verified against each
station/s storm-total snowfall (STP) ... as reported by NWS Preliminary Local Climatological Bulletins (CF6). In the event a CF6 is not available or appears to contain errors ... the following sources ... listed in order of preference ... will be used: CDUS41 ... PNS ... or METAR. STP reports are posted to the NEWxSFC web log
prior to forecast verification. |
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Scoring |
Each 'storm-total' snowfall contest must have at least seven entries to be a valid. The scoring system for the
'regular' season is designed to determine objectively The scatter plot/s black diamonds
show the forecast snowfall (x-axis) plotted The 0.82 RČ value indicates the
forecaster accounted for 82% of the variability The forecast error statistic is the Sum of Squared Errors (SUMSQ). The arithmetic difference between
the Forecast and Observed snowfall at each The smaller the SUMSQ ... the
better
the synoptic-scale forecast. Each forecaster/s SUMSQ Error score is normalized to a Z-Score for use in calculating Interim and End-of-Season standings. Forecasts with normalized Z-scores greater than or equal to 2.5 standard deviations above the mean are statistical outliers and may be excluded from the final Z-Score calculation. If Snow is Observed and Snow is Not Forecast... then the Forecaster/s Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... If Snow is not Forecast and Snow is Not
Observed... Other reported forecast statistics ... such as average absolute error (AAE) ... total absolute error (TAE) ... total snowfall error (STP) ... RČ (coefficient of determination) ... and 'batting averages' are 'measures of forecaster skill' but do not factor into forecast rankings. |
Season-total Contest Scoring |
The error statistic for the 'Season-total' snowfall
forecast contest is the sum-total of absolute errors. A forecast with the lowest 'sum-total of absolute errors' is the best forcast. |
Results |
Full forecast verification and
summary results are posted on the Contest web page. Abbreviated results are posted to NEWxSFC/s web log |
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End-of-the-Season |
The Contest winner is determined by
which Forecaster has the lowest average Sum of Square Error (SUMSQ) Z-Score at the end of the season. Forecasters must participate in at least two-thirds
(2/3) of all Storm Contests |
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Prizes |
The top-ranked end-of-season 'Snow Storm' Forecaster and the top-ranked 'Season-total snowfall' Forecaster receive their choice of prizes. |
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Disputes |
The contests are intended to be
easy and fun to play. Disputes are not easy nor fun. Errors can and do happen. Be sure to un-munge the mailto: address before you press 'Send.' |
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