NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Contest
Rules

Enter
Snow Storm
Forecast

Enter
Season-total
Forecast

Winter '23 / '24
25th Annual
Snow Storm Contest

Verified Forecasts

Storm #1
Storm #2
Storm #3
Storm #4
Storm #5
Storm #6
Storm #7
Storm #8

Storm Summaries

Storm #1
Storm #2
Storm #3
Storm #4
Storm #5
Storm #6
Storm #7
Storm #8

Winter '23 / '24
23rd Annual
Season-total Contest
Forecasts

Forecaster
Storm Statistics

25th Annual
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest
Winter '23 / '24

The l-o-n-g-e-s-t continuously held
snowfall forecasting contest
on the World Wide Web.

Announcements ... Updates ... and Ramblings
NEWxSFC/s Weblog

Winter '22 / '23 - 24th Annual 'Snow Storm' Contest
FINAL Standings here
Blog summary here

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23rd Annual
'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Call for Forecasts!
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM EST SUN ... 10-DEC-23
Enter your forecast here

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Snow Storm #1: Synoptiscope in VCP32
Enter forecast here
Forecasts here
Preliminary STP verification here
Verified forecasts here
FINAL Results / Storm Summary here
Select charts and graphs at the blog

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23rd Annual
'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Enter your forecast here
Forecasts here
Verified forecasts here
Verification period: 01-DEC-23 thru 31-MAR-24
Summary and charts at the blog

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NEWxSFC greatly appreciates the generous ... long-term support provided graciously
by Senior Forecaster Emeritus Donald Rosenfeld who began his sponsorship
of our web site in 2003 and managed the development of our online entry forms.

Day One >= 4" QPFHSD

Day Two >= 4"

Day Three >= 4"

NOHRSC SN Analysis

NESDIS

US SN cover - NESDIS

NHEMI SN cover - NESDIS

Daily snow extent
and anomalies

Today/s Snow cover

Winter '23 / '24
'Snow Storm' Contest
Storm	1st	2nd	3rd	HM
# 1
# 2
# 3
# 4
# 5
# 6
# 7
# 8
# 9
#10

Winter '22 / '23 Results

24th Annual
'Snow Storm' Contests
FINAL Standings here

1st	2nd	3rd	HM
Don Sutherland	WeatherT	Jessica Cain	TQ

22nd Annual
'Season-total' Contest
Forecaster Verifications & Final Results

1st	2nd	3rd	HM
snowman	Jessica Cain	Herb@MAWS	Mitchel Volk

Past Contest Winners


Arctic Oscillation


North Atlantic Oscillation


Pacific North American

NCDC Period-of-Record
Snowfall Climatology

References

Updated: 30-NOV-23 @ 9 PM EST

ME	NH	VT	MA	RI	CT	NY	PA	NJ	MD	VA	NC
CAR Caribou	CON Concord	BTV Burlington	BOS Boston	PVD Providence	BDR Bridgeport	ALB Albany	ABE Allentown	ACY Atlantic City	BWI Baltimore	IAD Dulles	RDU Raleigh
BGR Bangor			HYA Hyannis		BDL Hartford	BGM Binghamton	MDT Harrisburg	EWR Newark	DCA Washington	ORF Norfolk
PWM Portland			ORH Worcester			ISP Islip	PHL Philly		SBY Salisbury	RIC Richmond
						JFK Kennedy

**Snowfall Forecast Contest** **Rules**

Forecast Stations	There are 27 permanent forecast stations for each snow storm. Forecast station locations range from Raleigh ... NC (RDU) to Caribou ... ME (CAR) and Binghamton ... NY (BGM) to Hyannis ... MA (HYA). Here/s a map showing their approximate locations (courtesy Steve Okonski). The 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast contest station list has 25 stations and is slightly different than the 'Snow Storm' station list (HYA ... ISP ... and JFK excluded; NYC included).

Who Can Enter ?	The Contest is open to all including amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents ... pest detectives ... ne.weather USENET veterans and lurkers ... riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx ... USWeather survivors ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists. In honor of Mr. Joseph Bartlo/s final request (RIP): trolls ... goats ... hat3-lsiters ... and psests need not apply.

Entries	Enter your 'snow storm' snowfall forecasts here. Enter your 'season-total' snowfall forecasts here. If you/re a first-time forecaster ... you can create an account if you come up with a user name and password. Your NEWxSFC account is password protected. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies. After you submit your forecast ... a copy of it will be e-mailed to you unless COMCAST or your ISP flags it as SPAM (looking at you COMCAST). All raw 'storm' forecasts will be posted automatically to the NEWxSFC web log ~30 minutes after the 10 PM LT entry deadline has passed. 'Call for Forecasts' are made on the NEWxSFC web log by the Contest Administrator ~24 hours in advance of the deadline. In most cases ... the deadline will be 10 PM LT. The Contest Administrator reserves the right to reject any forecast if it could compromise the validity or integrity of the contest.

Forecast Snowfall Amounts	MIN value: 0" MAX value: 99" MAX decimal places: 2 If 'trace' snowfall is expected at a forecast station ... please enter 0.05".

Verification	Forecasts are verified against each station/s storm-total snowfall (STP) ... as reported by NWS Preliminary Local Climatological Bulletins (CF6). In the event a CF6 is not available or appears to contain errors ... the following sources ... listed in order of preference ... will be used: CDUS41 ... PNS ... or METAR. STP reports are posted to the NEWxSFC web log prior to forecast verification. The reports are considered preliminary and subject to change / challenge for ~24 hours ... should updated information become available.

Scoring	Each snowfall contest must have at least seven entries to be a valid. The scoring system for the 'snow storm' season is designed to determine objectively which forecast had the best overall synoptic quality. An accurate ... high-quality ... synoptic-scale snowfall forecast is defined as one capturing the magnitude and distribution of the storm/s total snowfall. Forecast quality is evaluated by calculating its 'goodness of fit' between all forecast and observed snowfall amounts. The scatter plot/s black diamonds show the forecast snowfall (x-axis) plotted against the observed snowfall (y-axis). The dashed line represents the forecast/s 'goodness of fit.' The magenta points represent a perfect forecast ... where each station forecast matched each station observation. The 0.82 R² value indicates the forecaster accounted for 82% of the variability in the observed snowfall amounts. A 'perfect' forecast would have an R² value of 1 ... meaning 100% of the observed snowfall/s variability was accounted for (explained) by the forecast. The forecast error statistic is the Sum of Squared Errors (SUMSQ). The arithmetic difference between the Forecast and Observed snowfall at each station is squared and the squared errors for all stations are summed. This measure of skill rewards (penalizes) station forecasts with small (large) errors. The smaller the SUMSQ ... the better the synoptic-scale forecast. If the absolute difference between your Forecast snowfall and the Observed snowfall is: one (1) inch = one (1) error point two (2) inches = four (4) error points three (3) inches = nine (9) error points Each forecaster/s SUMSQ Error score is normalized to a Z-Score for use in calculating Interim and End-of-Season standings. Forecasts with normalized Z-scores greater than or equal to 2.5 standard deviations above the mean are statistical outliers and may be excluded from the final Z-Score calculation. If Snow is Observed and Snow is Not Forecast... then the Forecaster/s Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... then the Observed Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is not Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... then the Forecaster is not scored for that station. Other reported forecast statistics ... such as average absolute error (AAE) ... total absolute error (TAE) ... total snowfall error (STP) ... R² (coefficient of determination) ... skill scores ... and 'batting averages' are 'measures of forecaster skill' but do not factor into forecast rankings.
Season-total Contest Scoring	The error statistic for the 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest is the sum-total of absolute errors. A forecast with the lowest 'sum-total of absolute errors' is the best forcast.
Results	Full forecast verification and summary results are posted on the Contest web page. Abbreviated results are posted to NEWxSFC/s web log

End-of-the-Season Final Standings	The Contest winner is determined by which Forecaster has the lowest average Sum of Square Error (SUMSQ) Z-Score at the end of the season. Forecasters must participate in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests to be eligible for ranking in the Interim and Final Standings. Forecasters ... who have participated in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests ... will have Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. The intent of this rule is to encourage forecasters to 'take on' difficult and/or late-season storms without fear of jeopardizing their score b/c of a 'bad' forecast.

Prizes	The three top-ranked 'Season-total snowfall' Forecasters receive their choice of prizes TBD.

Disputes	The contests are intended to be easy and fun to play. Disputes are not easy nor are they fun. Errors can and do happen. Please report them along with a link to the supporting data to newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net or in Comments on the web log. Be sure to un-munge the mailto: address before you press 'Send.'
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